How Many Illegal Immigrants Are in the US in 2025?

How many illegal immigrants are living in the United States in 2025, and why does it matter? Estimating the undocumented immigrant population is complex, with figures varying due to differing methodologies and data limitations. This question ties directly to ongoing debates, such as the 2025 conflict between President Donald Trump’s federal immigration enforcement and California Governor Gavin Newsom’s sanctuary policies, highlighting its relevance. This blog explores the best available estimates for illegal immigrants in the US in 2025, their implications, and challenges in counting them, backed by 2025 data and real-world insights, with practical tips for understanding the issue.

Challenges in Estimating Illegal Immigrant Numbers

Counting illegal immigrants—also termed undocumented or unauthorized immigrants—is inherently difficult. A 2025 Journal of Migration Studies notes that no definitive count exists due to underreporting, voluntary departures, deaths, and status changes (e.g., gaining legal residency). Estimates rely on U.S. Census Bureau data, like the American Community Survey (ACS), but 50% of unauthorized immigrants may avoid surveys due to legal concerns, per Pew Research Center. Methodologies differ, with some groups adjusting for undercounts, leading to a range of figures.

A 2024 X post claimed “50 million illegals,” but such high numbers lack credible backing, per PolitiFact. Accurate estimates inform policy, like Trump’s deportation plans or Newsom’s sanctuary laws, affecting 70% of state budgets, per CBO. Understanding these challenges clarifies how many illegal immigrants are in the US and their impact on national performance.

Best Available Estimates for 2025

Recent data provides a range for the undocumented immigrant population in 2025:

• Pew Research Center (2022 baseline): Estimated 11 million unauthorized immigrants in 2022, up from 10.5 million in 2021, per Pew Research (July 2024). With 500,000 new arrivals via parole programs (e.g., CHNV, Uniting for Ukraine) by December 2023, and accounting for departures, deaths, and legalizations, Pew’s 2025 projection is roughly 11.5–12 million.
• Migration Policy Institute (MPI): Estimated 11.4 million in 2022, projecting 11.7–12.2 million in 2025, factoring in recent border arrivals and adjustments for undercounts, per MPI (March 2025).
• Center for Migration Studies (CMS): Reported 11.7 million in July 2023, suggesting 12–12.5 million in 2025, based on CPS data and asylum seeker increases, per CMS (September 2024).
• Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR): Claims 18.6 million in 2025, up from 16.8 million in 2023, but this is criticized for overestimating due to unverified assumptions about undercounts and arrivals, per PolitiFact. FAIR’s figure aligns with some X posts but lacks peer-reviewed rigor.

A 2025 New York Times analysis pegs the range at 11.5–12.5 million, dismissing higher claims like 20–50 million as exaggerated, per expert consensus. The Trump-Newsom conflict references 2.9 million undocumented Californians, aligning with lower estimates, per ACLU. Most sources agree the population grew slightly since 2022, driven by border crossings and parole programs, but remains below the 2007 peak of 12.2 million.

Factors Influencing 2025 Estimates

Several dynamics shape the 2025 illegal immigrant count:

• Border Crossings: U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported 2.7 million encounters in FY 2024, but not all add to the population due to repeat apprehensions, deportations (271,484 in 2024), or asylum grants, per CBP. Trump’s 2025 enforcement, including “Operation Tidal Wave” with 139,000 deportations, reduced inflows, with January 2025 apprehensions down 85%, per CBP.
• Parole Programs: 500,000+ entered via CHNV and Uniting for Ukraine by 2023, but many await legal status, complicating counts, per Pew.
• Departures and Adjustments: Annually, 1–1.5% of unauthorized immigrants leave, and 1.2 million died or gained status (e.g., DACA, TPS) from 2021–2025, offsetting arrivals, per CBO.
• Undercounts: Census data misses 10–20% of unauthorized immigrants, per Migration Policy Institute, inflating some estimates like FAIR’s.

A 2024 TikTok user claimed “30 million” based on border data, but this ignores offsets, per PolitiFact. These factors explain the 11.5–12.5 million range, critical for debates like California’s resistance to federal deportations.

Implications of the Undocumented Population

The illegal immigrant population impacts society, fueling the Trump-Newsom conflict:

• Economic: Undocumented workers contribute $79 billion in taxes but strain local resources, with California spending $4 billion yearly, per CBO. Deportations could cost $315 billion nationally, per CBO.
• Public Safety: Less than 4% have criminal records (650,000), per EL PAÍS, but Trump’s focus on gangs like Tren de Aragua (600+ arrests) drives enforcement, per DHS.
• Policy: Trump’s 2025 ICE raids (158,000 arrests) clash with Newsom’s $50 million legal fund for immigrants, per The Guardian. Courts may uphold federal authority, affecting 2.9 million in California, per ACLU.

A 2025 X post criticized Trump’s deportation pace (220,000/year) as insufficient for “15–40 million,” but this range is inflated. Accurate counts shape national performance, balancing enforcement and humanitarian concerns.

Addressing Misconceptions

Some believe the population is 20–50 million, but 80% of demographers reject this, per 2025 Journal of Migration Studies, citing rigorous ACS-based methods. Another myth is that all border crossings add to the count—only 20% of 2.7 million 2024 encounters stayed, per CBP. A 2024 X post claimed “75–100 million,” but no data supports this.

Assuming static numbers ignores outflows, with 14 million leaving or adjusting status from 2010–2022, per CMS. These clarifications ensure realistic views of how many illegal immigrants are in the US, countering misinformation.

Practical Tips for Staying Informed

Here’s how to understand illegal immigrant estimates:

• Check Reputable Sources: Use Pew Research, MPI, or CBO for data, trusted by 80% of academics, per Journal of Migration Studies.
• Follow Policy Updates: Track Trump’s enforcement or Newsom’s lawsuits on NBC News or Politico, avoiding 60% of X misinformation, per Journal of Media Studies.
• Understand Methodology: Read Pew’s 2018 methodology report for estimate reliability, clarifying 70% of debates, per Pew Research.
• Engage Locally: Contact reps via CA.gov on immigration policies, influencing 65% of state actions, per Congress.gov.
• Verify Claims: Cross-check X posts against PolitiFact or CBO, dismissing 50% of exaggerated figures like “50 million.”

These steps keep you grounded in facts amid the Trump-Newsom conflict.

Why This Question Matters to You

Knowing how many illegal immigrants are in the US in 2025—likely 11.5–12.5 million—shapes your understanding of policies affecting taxes, safety, and communities, with 70% of state budgets impacted, per CBO. It informs debates like California’s $50 million immigrant defense versus Trump’s $315 billion deportation plan, saving or costing you $1,000 in taxes, per Care.com. Your awareness drives informed voting and advocacy.

Read our blog on Why Minority Groups Become Scapegoats

This issue tests federal-state dynamics, with 80% of Americans concerned about immigration, per Pew Research. By grasping accurate numbers, you enhance national performance, ensuring policies reflect reality. Your engagement shapes a balanced, equitable future.

Key Takeaways

The undocumented immigrant population in the US in 2025 is estimated at 11.5–12.5 million, per Pew (11.5–12M), MPI (11.7–12.2M), and CMS (12–12.5M), up from 11M in 2022 due to border crossings and parole programs, though FAIR’s 18.6M is less credible. These figures, critical to the Trump-Newsom immigration conflict, reflect 2.9M in California, per ACLU. Practical steps like checking Pew or CBO counter 60% of inflated X claims (e.g., 50M). Accurate counts save $1,000 in tax impacts, shaping national performance and informing policy debates on enforcement versus sanctuary.